ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION and Green Fantasies

[marchesarosa]

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: A REALITY CHECK

Date: 30/03/13 Blake Clayton, Council on Foreign Relations
blogs.cfr.org/levi/2013/03/29/the-end-of-energy-as-we-know-it-in-three-graphs/

Two decades from now, a world with more people and higher average incomes will mean more demand for energy. That shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s more striking is to see where all this growth will happen.

Want to understand the energy challenges the world might face in the future? There are few better places to turn than this year’s BP Energy Outlook to 2030, an annual publication that shows the company’s projections for energy supply and demand over the next two decades. The three graphs below highlight some of the trends likely to define the energy landscape in the years ahead, in BP’s view.



Two decades from now, a world with more people and higher average incomes will mean more demand for energy. That shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s more striking is to see where all this growth will happen. In BP’s forecast, low and medium income economies outside the OECD will account for a full 90 percent of population growth between now and 2030, and their GDP will climb much higher. These same countries will also contribute to 90 percent of all the energy demand growth over that time, roaring ahead of the developed world.

[marchesarosa]

See, aubrey, it's the poor in the developing economies that will suffer most from restricting fossil fuel use. The amount of fossil fuel foregone by the West promoting windmills etc is trivial in comparison.

[marchesarosa]

Fascinating series of tables here in the section headed World Coal Reserves
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#Major_coal_producers

It may surprise you to know (it did me!) that Indonesia is the second largest coal exporter (26.1%) close behind Australia (27.1%) in 2010.

Get yourself informed, aubrey, before you start bleating about weighing the hazards of coal in the balance against the benefits. Yes, coal mining is hazardous to life, limb and health but that is a reason for raising industry standards not for abandoning coal.

And remember, the argument against fossil fuels from global warming alarmists is because of CO2 emissions NOT because of mortality rates in extraction industries!

Atmospheric CO2, a clear, clean, odourless gas, hasn't killed anyone yet, except the poor souls who succumb to faulty gas heaters usually in holiday homes and most recently on a boat on Windermere.

[marchesarosa]

And here is a series of graphs about the dreaded CO2 emissions you are so keen to reduce, aubrey.




Bjorn Lomborg Published: 31 March 2013
www.thegwpf.org/bjorn-lomborg-joy-global-warming/

Table 5 shows the West's emissions falling because the West has to a considerable extent de-industrialised and now buys manufactured goods from the East while it has also made productivity improvements so that it can produce more from less energy.

[marchesarosa]

Ultra Super Critical Coal Fired Power gives a 15% CO2 Emissions Reduction
Guest Post: Anton Lang (aka TonyfromOz)

It all comes down to steam.

Assume (for a moment) that we have to reduce the emissions of CO2 by something like 20% between now and 2020.

Previously I showed we could achieve a reduction of 13% in CO2 emissions from the electrical power generating sector just by converting from the current 70’s technology coal fired power to the newest technology USC (UltraSuperCritical) coal fired technology.

That 13% I quoted at the time was theoretical, but in China over the last three years the emissions reduction of new USC plants is even better, around 15% to 17%. This is off-the-shelf technology that handles base-load, produces cheap electricity, and reduces emissions.

more here www.shanghai-electric.com/en/business/cleanenergy/powergeneration/Pages/pg100GW.aspx



What's not to like, aubrey? Keeps the lights burning and reduces CO2.

[marchesarosa]

www.energytribune.com/11431/irony-of-ironies-europe-switches-to-coal-as-us-gas-glut-reduces-emissions

Here’s a tester for you. Which raft of energy policies gets proven ‘greener’ results? Is it the anti-fossil fuel, cap-and-trade regulatory regimes of socialist Europe? Or is it the path of technological innovation set by the ‘evil’ capitalists in the Kyoto-eschewing Bush White House?

In what has to be the irony of ironies, Europe’s consumption of coal grew by 3.3 percent in 2011. The increase was directly due to the glut of European Trading Scheme (ETS) emission allowances which made coal the most profitable electric power fuel. Over in the United States in 2012, however, coal burning to generate power continued to decline, primarily due to America’s switch to shale gas. Natural gas emits around half the CO2 of coal. U.S. levels of carbon emission are currently plummeting; a feat Europe has no chance of matching, not least as coal use is on the increase. It’s a situation that ought to bring the whole raft of EU market-interfering policies geared to reducing carbon emissions into sharper focus. Policies that can only be characterize by three S’s: sheer synchronized stupidity. more...

[marchesarosa]

Greens might wish for a future dominated by alternative energies, but the scientific and economic realities suggest that the “fuels of the future” will mostly be the same as the “fuels of the past” — dependable and low-cost oil, natural gas, and coal.

Here's the situation in the USA now and until 2040


US Department of Energy forecasts for the shares that various fuel sources

[marchesarosa]

At 4.30pm today windmills are producing 3.9% of our electricity and I'm still hugging my hot water bottle in lieu of turning on the CH, i.e it's bludy cold for April 9th!

[marchesarosa]

Ooops! It's fallen to 2.3% at 5.30pm. Time to refill the hot water bottle, obviously!

[marchesarosa]

Today at 11.30 am, windmills are producing a measly 1% of our electricity.

This means that the contribution of windmills to demand varies by an order of magnitude (a factor of 10) on a day to day basis due to intermittency. This is no way to power a modern, densely populated industrial society.

What makes it worse is that efficient sources of electric power like goal and gas have to ramped up and down to compensate of the variability of the wind input making their input less efficient than it would otherwise be.

[marchesarosa]

Temperatures warming up a bit today at last so electricity demand has fallen to 33.90 GW this morning. Windmills are providing 0.42 GW of that, i.e. a meagre 1.2%.

[marchesarosa]

Windy today and the windmills are delivering 4.44 GW to the grid. The UK demand is currently 34.84 GW. The wind is supplying close to its maximum output just now. The demand is pretty low just now compared to its maximum which can be close to 50GWs.

I have just seen an article from the Chiefio who has been following the same National Grid data as me here www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Read his views on the impact of wind power on the UK grid, especially when wind output is high and demand low. These are the circumstances when he foresees problems for the UK grid. Time will tell.

Is The UK Grid Approaching Instability?
chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/04/14/is-the-uk-grid-approaching-instability/