Comparing climate projections

[visitor]

Abstract
We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low.

iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/pdf/1748-9326_7_4_044035.pdf

[marchesarosa]

Have a look at this interactive map produced by NOAA and calm your nerves about sea level rise, Visitor. I've already shown it to jean on MCL and it did wonders for her SLAS (sea-level anxiety syndrome)

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

The arrows show where sea level is rising and where it is falling. click on the arrows and then you will get a load of the historical sea level data for that location in graph form and what this means if the same historical trend is projected one hundred years into the future.

It's a bit different from Rahmstorf's travesty in your OP, isn't it, Visitor?

[marchesarosa]

And here's a note from Anthony Watts

From NOAA Headquarters, laughable claims gift wrapped for the fall AGU conference.

They claim 8 inches to 6.6 feet (o.2 to 2 meters) seal level rise over the next century….such wide variance doesn’t inspire much confidence, even though they claim “high confidence” in that spread. That’s a lot like saying that you have “high confidence that the winner of the latest NBA basketball game will score between 20 and 200 points”. I don’t think the bookies would be impressed with the skill.

Anthony
wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/05/noaa-to-release-sea-level-report-in-time-for-agu-bookies-to-place-bets/





Good man, AW, a meteorologist to his bones and insistant upon the proper scientific method being adhered to, the replicability of findings and the availability of data without the need for a FOI demand. A true scientist in other words!