Post by marchesarosa on Dec 16, 2009 15:21:51 GMT
“A Strong Bout Of Natural Cooling in 2008″ By Perlwitz Et Al 2009
with a remarkably convoluted way to rationalize recent cooling in North America so that it conforms with the IPCC perspective of global warming.
The abstract reads
“A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region’s temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent’s sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling.”
Roger Pielke says,
This paper is an amazing example of ignoring the obvious. None of the models anticipated this record cooling in the Nino 4 region. These sea surface temperatures are very much a part of the real climate system, which the IPCC claims can be skillfully predicted decades into the future.
Yet, the model simulations (which themselves are just hypotheses) are being used to claim that this cooling is just a short-term blip on a long-term upward trend.
The authors, of course, may be correct that the warming will recommence and continue into the future. However, while they did not intend this message, what they have shown convincingly is that natural climate variations exceed what the IPCC models can skillfully simulate. This should give pause to anyone who claims that these models are skillful predictions of the climate in the coming decades.
with a remarkably convoluted way to rationalize recent cooling in North America so that it conforms with the IPCC perspective of global warming.
The abstract reads
“A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region’s temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent’s sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling.”
Roger Pielke says,
This paper is an amazing example of ignoring the obvious. None of the models anticipated this record cooling in the Nino 4 region. These sea surface temperatures are very much a part of the real climate system, which the IPCC claims can be skillfully predicted decades into the future.
Yet, the model simulations (which themselves are just hypotheses) are being used to claim that this cooling is just a short-term blip on a long-term upward trend.
The authors, of course, may be correct that the warming will recommence and continue into the future. However, while they did not intend this message, what they have shown convincingly is that natural climate variations exceed what the IPCC models can skillfully simulate. This should give pause to anyone who claims that these models are skillful predictions of the climate in the coming decades.