Solar forcing effect on climate change

[visitor]

Solar forcing effect on climate change ‘extremely small’: IPCC scientist

Changes in solar radiation, known as solar forcing, have had only a very small effect on climate change, a member of the UN’s top panel of climate scientists said today.

The comment, made by a member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), followed the leak of a draft IPCC report late last year, which included comments on the effect of solar forcing on climate change.

At the time of the leak, the climate change skeptics blog, Watts Up With That drew attention to what it described as a “game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing” but co-chair of the IPCC’s Working Group 1, Professor Thomas Stocker said that solar forcing actually did not play a major role.

“As the scientific publications indicate, the assessment is not yet completed. We are looking at an extremely small effect here, that’s what one can say from the publications but I should stress the experts are still performing their assessment,” he said a press conference in Hobart today.

The person who leaked the report, blogger Alec Rawls, obtained the draft by signing up as an expert reviewer of the draft.

Professor Stocker said the IPCC was “interested to have a very wide range of experts” reviewing their draft reports.

“We don’t want to have quantitative bars on the reviewers, for example requesting a certain number of publications in peer reviewed journals. We rely on an honest self-declaration on why he or she is an expert,” he said.

Extreme events
Professor Stocker and other members of the IPCC’s Working Group 1 met today in Hobart, after a week of bushfires ravaged Tasmania and a heatwave swept Australia.

Professor Stocker said that previous IPCC reports had “clearly shown there is a connection between increased greenhouse gas concentration, changes in climate, in particular changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events.”

“The five hottest summers in Europe have all occurred after 2001 over the past 500 years. This is a very interesting observation,” he said.

Dr Scott Power from the Bureau of Meteorology and an IPCC Working Group 1 coordinating lead author, said bushfires and hot weather were part and parcel of living in Australia.

“What climate change does is increase the likelihood of such events and increase the intensity of such events,” he said.

“So far in Australia, we have seen warming of the climate of about 0.9 degrees Celsius since 1910 and that’s projected to go up; the increase is projected to be much higher than that if emissions aren’t brought down over the coming decades,” said Dr Power.

“So these sorts of events will become increasingly more common and the temperature records set will tend to go up with each passing decade.”

Dr John Church, a CSIRO scientist and Working Group 1 coordinating lead author also said that a newspaper story published today saying sea level rises were not linked to climate change was inaccurate.

“Sea level clearly is linked to climate change, it clearly is linked to greenhouse gases and that was in the paper quoted by The Australian. The quote is, I am sorry, inaccurate,” he said.


theconversation.edu.au/solar-forcing-effect-on-climate-change-extremely-small-ipcc-scientist-11589

[ncsonde]

What matters in this sphere is science, visitor, not the wild and unsupported speculations of political apparachiks with heavily vested interests in keeping the busted flush of the AGW scare going. Kindly provide any peer-reveiwed data to support this man's ridiculous claims. And then provide a rebuttal of all those papers that have proven beyond any question the direct link between solar variability and the temperature record of the past thousand years. Here's a thumbnail outline of it:


www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117703005866

In this paper we provide a comparison of the change in the solar flux with the surface forcing from greenhouse gases, particularly that of carbon dioxide which is increasing in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel combustion processes. This comparison shows that the maximum changes in the clear sky solar flux since the time of the approximate onset of the industrial period is comparable to the corresponding carbon dioxide surface forcing. In comparison with the forcing from all of the other major greenhouse gases combined, the solar contribution may be about 20–60% as strong. This comparison indicates that over the past few hundred years, the surface temperature change impact from solar variability can rival that from the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases


www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611002872

Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively, and in several planetary and solar records. We argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely in addition to a Soli-Lunar tidal effect, there exists a planetary modulation of the heliosphere, of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, has the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include a historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We show that a harmonic constituent model based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced from the natural gravitational oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the decadal and multidecadal temperature oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the temperature data before 1950, and vice versa. The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60–70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. Moreover, the climate may stay approximately stable during the next decades because the 60-year cycle has entered in its cooling phase.


www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682610001495

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040.



multi-science.metapress.com/content/t223v450754p6612/

We are experiencing a period of intense anthropocentrism: humans flatter themselves they can govern the thermal machine of the ocean-atmosphere system and build models of atmospheric circulation (that solve hundreds of non-linear equations for each box of a three-dimensional grid covering the globe) to demonstrate that Earth's recent warming is attributable to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the results of such a reductionist approach are questionable, since the atmosphere and oceans form a complex interactive system that cannot be recreated in a laboratory experiment, and where the many physical and chemical processes are regulated by dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, interconnected in a non-linear way, and there are various positive and negative feedback processes. Only a holistic approach that analyses the system in its entirety, and drastically reduces the number of degree of freedom, can provide information on the way in which the global environmental system operates. When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008); application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth's atmosphere in this decade.


multi-science.metapress.com/content/b757046647343465/

Projections of weak solar maxima for solar cycles 24 and 25 are correlated with the terrestrial climate response to solar cycles over the last three hundred years, derived from a review of the literature. Based on solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5°C is predicted to 2020, equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum. To provide a baseline for projecting temperature to the projected maximum of solar cycle 25, data from five rural, continental US stations with data from 1905 to 2003 was averaged and smoothed. The profile indicates that temperatures remain below the average over the first half of the twentieth century


multi-science.metapress.com/content/w004714u17756774/

Statistically significant 21-year periodicity is present concurrently in South African annual rainfall, river flow, flood peak maxima, groundwater levels, lake levels and the Southern Oscillation Index. This is directly related to the double sunspot cycle. The first years of the periodic sequences are characterised by sudden, regular and therefore predictable, reversals from sequences of well below average rainfall and river flow (droughts) that are suddenly broken by sequences of well above average events (floods). These reversals are directly related to corresponding six-fold increases in sunspot activity at this time. The two sunspot cycles that comprise the double sunspot cycle also have fundamentally different effects on the hydrometeorological responses. These observations are solidly based and will require a re-assessment of the nature of the solar activity that gives rise to them.


onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024393/abstract

Mechanisms by which small changes in the sun's energy output during the solar cycle can cause changes in weather and climate have been a puzzle and the subject of intense research in recent decades. Here we report that differences in surface circulation conditions during solar maximum and minimum periods are caused by differences in the frequencies with which circulation perturbations in the stratosphere reach the surface. A much greater fraction of stratospheric perturbations penetrate to the surface during solar maximum conditions than during minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: no stratospheric signals reach the surface when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west under solar minimum conditions, and over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. It has been previously shown that stratospheric circulation perturbations reaching the surface change weather patterns by imposing atmospheric pressure anomalies characteristic of the Arctic oscillation.



www.maik.ru/abstract/geomag/3/geomag1_3p124abs.htm

The data series of the Wolf numbers and surface air temperature over Irkutsk and the entire globe
from 1882 to date has been analyzed. The trends of the local (Irkutsk) and global (the entire Earth) temperatures
follow the trend of solar activity. A global fall of the surface temperature in the coming 25 years is predicted
based on close solar–terrestrial relations and on an anticipated decrease in solar activity by 2025.



onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JA900027/abstract

It has previously been demonstrated that the mean land air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere could adequately be associated with a long-term variation of solar activity as given by the length of the approximately 11-year solar cycle. In this paper it is shown that the right cause-and-effect ordering, in the sense of Granger causality, is present between the smoothed solar cycle length and the cycle mean of Northern Hemisphere land air temperature for the twentieth century, at the 99% significance level. This indicates the existence of a physical mechanism linking solar activity to climate variations



www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682610004050

A long uninterrupted homogeneous data set on the annual mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly records as a representative of the Earth's climatic parameter has been analyzed in conjunction with 158 year long time series on the annual sunspot indices, Rz and geomagnetic activity indices, aa for the period 1850–2007. The 11-year and 23-year overlapping means of global (δtg) as well as northern (δtn) and southern (δts) hemispheric SST anomalies reveal significant positive correlation with both Rz and aa indices. Rz, aa and δtg depict a similar trend in their long-term variation and both seem to be on increase after attaining a minimum in the early 20th century (∼1905). Whereas the results on the power spectrum analysis by the Multi-Taper Method (MTM) on δtg, Rz and aa reveal periodicities of ∼79–80 years (Gleissberg's cycle) and ∼9–11 years (Schwabe solar cycle) consistent with earlier findings, MTM spectrum analysis also reveals fast cycles of 3–5 years. A period of ∼4.2 years in aa at 99% confidence level appears recorded in δtg at ∼4.3 years at 90% confidence level. A period of ∼3.6–3.7 years at 99% confidence level found in δtg is correlating with a similar periodic variation in sector structure of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). This fast cycle parallelism is new and is supportive of a possible link between the solar-modulated geomagnetic activity and Earth's climatic parameter i.e. SST.

► Instrumental records of temperature anomalies analyzed in conjunction with sunspot, Rz and geomagnetic, aa indices. ► Significant positive correlation exists between Rz and aa when they are referred to long-term trends. ► Besides the 79 year and 11 year cycle the present investigation has also revealed fast cycle periods of 3–5 years in SST and aa. ► Geomagnetic activity could be a possible link through which solar activity may influence the Earth's climate. ► The Sun has a significant role to play in the long-term and short-term climate change.[/b]



link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-005-4979-5

Historical geomagnetic and climate records were analyzed to study long-term trends and relationships with solar activity. Wavelet technique and recurrence plot analysis are applied to the data to find their coherence and similarities at different times and time-scales. It is shown that the solar cycle signal is more pronounced in climatic data during the last 60 years



www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399437a0.html

The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field. Magnetic reconnection—the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields—between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood. Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate. Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2. This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.